This season
High strike rate, consistently profitable edges in the NFL.
- Email at 9pm the night before
- 25–30 bets a week
- Regular season and playoffs
Profit
ROI14.8%
Strike59.3%
High strike rate, consistently profitable edges in the NFL.
Plenty of time to get bets on. Wednesday, Saturday and Sunday 9pm.
Easy to get on — bets are laid at a very wide variety of UK, Irish, US and European firms.
Simple staking, minimum prices included, in an easy-to-use spreadsheet.
We focus on main line player props — receiving yards, receptions, and some rushing yards and passing touchdowns.
Yes. You get the regular season and the playoffs.
You’ll get an email on Wednesday, Saturday and Sunday evenings at 9pm (the day before the games.)
We mostly flat stake with occasional two-unit bets. But we give a minimum price, so you are welcome to try other strategies — some of our users use fractional Kelly staking which also works well.
As we’re dealing with short odds bets and a high strike rate, a large bank is not required, although Sundays will require lots of bets to be on at once. We recommend a 50-unit bank.
Yes, plenty of books have backable prices available. Some firms will be missing certain players, but there are almost always multiple options for each selection at good prices. BoyleSports, Paddy Power, Sky Bet and Betfair Sportsbook always have the full list available, while Betfred, Bet365 and William Hill are also good options, and plenty of others carry them as well. The bets are all main lines so prices typically don’t differ too much between firms. You shouldn’t need more than one or two books to be able to get every bet on.
Yes. Again, these are main lines, so most US sportsbooks as well as other markets like Kalshi should provide them. We’ve had a couple of US-based people betting these since we started trialling them, and they’ve been able to get on without any problems.
Paddy Power, William Hill, BoyleSports and Betfred all offer the bets in shops.
Yes, definitely — it’s up to your own level of risk tolerance. A popular strategy is to always put on an accumulator of the four or five highest probability selections each Sunday. For bet builders in the same game, picks can often be positively or negatively correlated, and the difference will vary from book to book, so we would avoid those.
We don’t recommend this. Our model is calibrated for main line prices rather than tail outcomes. While we have had more than a few players easily beat their line on both overs and unders, it’s not what we’re modelling or recording to. If you want to try and gain more edge for a bigger risk, just back some multiples.